The SOAS Spirit Guide to Movie Award Season

Kasia Donnell, MSc Politics and International Relations, 03/02/2025

Emilia Perez is taking the internet by storm as one of the most ‘memeable’ movies of the 2024 awards season. Clips of the film are going viral on TikTok, leaving viewers unsure if it’s an  ironic skit or genuinely that terrible. Highlights include Selena Gomez speaking Spanish like it’s Simlish and a musical number whose hook is a doctor monosyllabically asserting; 'from penis to vagina.' How then, did this $25 million box-office flop (grossing just $9.8 million) clean up at the Golden Globes, winning four awards and beating films like Challengers, The Substance and Wicked? We’re just as confused as you are. 

With awards season in full swing and the Oscars just around the corner, here’s your ultimate guide to the likely nominees and favourites (from critics, bookies, and audiences alike) to win.

At the time of writing, we so far know the outcome of the Golden Globes and the nominations for the BAFTAs and the PGAs. The Golden Globes, interestingly, seemed this year to be attempting a kind of brand switch from a night where celebrities get drunk and gossip, to one where serious international and arthouse performers gather and deliver sincere speeches. Nevertheless, the BAFTAS (Feb 16th) and crucially the PGAs (Feb 8th) tend to be more predictive bodies for the big night (Oscars are March 3rd, 12:00 am GMT). 

The big ticket category of the Oscars is undoubtedly Best Picture. Leading contenders are The Brutalist and Emilia Perez, followed by Conclave, Anora, and A Complete Unknown. Other PGA-nominated films include A Real Pain, The Substance, Wicked, Dune Part 2, and September 5. Critics see the real race between The Brutalist and Emilia Perez. 

The Brutalist, praised as 'an amazing and engrossing epic' about post-WWII Jewish immigration, could mark a shift in Academy preferences—it’s an independently financed film shot in VistaVision, with a 3-hour 35-minute runtime and a 15-minute intermission, reflecting director Brady Corbet’s fight for final cut. It’s already building a cult following as an allegory for artistic independence. 

Emilia Perez, praised by some critics like Mark Kermode for its production and lead performance by Karla Sofía Gascón's, has divided audiences. Mexican viewers are calling it reductive, while the trans community sees it as regressive. Its win would reflect the Academy’s alignment with Netflix’s influence.

Other hotly anticipated categories include Best Actor, Best Actress, and Supporting roles. Adrien Brody is the frontrunner for Best Actor with his performance in The Brutalist. Also in contention are Timothée Chalamet for the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown, Daniel Craig for Queer, Ralph Fiennes for Conclave, and Coleman Domingo for Sing Sing. Notably, Chalamet is not expected to earn a nod for Dune Part 2, possibly because it’s a ‘part 2’. The Academy does not tend to vote as hotly towards sequels as ‘original’ films.

For Best Actress, Demi Moore leads the pack after her Golden Globe win for The Substance. Other contenders include Mikey Madison (Anora), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Perez), and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), whose win would complete her EGOT status. 

Fans are rooting for Ariana Grande’s standout performance in Wicked to earn a Supporting Actress nomination, while Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is a favourite for Best Supporting Actor.

While it is still anyone’s game, the contenders for the Oscars are steadily narrowing down. Everyone is going to be keeping an eye out as award season unfolds for who ultimately takes home the gold knight statues.