Rising Tensions between Japan and China over Taiwan
Elizabeth Elrick, BA Chinese and Politics
Before a parliamentary committee on November 7th, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi went further in her remarks on Taiwan than any previous Japanese Prime Minister. She made it clear that any use of force in Taiwan would ‘constitute a situation threatening [Japan’s] survival.’
China sees Taiwan as a breakaway province of China and has warned other countries that involving themselves in Taiwan’s security is a ‘red line’ they should not cross. China pushes for ‘peaceful reunification’ through soft power, despite only 10% of Taiwanese people wanting immediate reunification. However, China hasn’t ruled out the possibility of using force to annex Taiwan and regularly performs military exercises around the island. This hawkish behaviour and questions over the United States’ willingness to support Taiwan have created significant uncertainty and tension in the region.
In response to the PM’s speech, the Chinese Consul General tweeted, ‘We have no choice but to cut off that dirty neck that has been lunged at us without hesitation.’ The Chinese Foreign Ministry said Takaichi’s remarks were ‘wrongful and dangerous’, further adding that she should ‘stop sending any wrong signals to Taiwan independence separatist forces.’ The Chinese Defence Ministry warned that if Japan involved itself in Taiwan, it would ‘suffer a crushing defeat.’
The Taiwanese Presidential Office condemned China’s remarks, saying ‘such behaviour clearly exceeds diplomatic etiquette.’ Although refusing to walk back on her comments, the Japanese Prime Minister said she’d be more careful in the future when talking about ‘specific scenarios.’ She has been a long-time supporter of Taiwan. However, the Japanese Foreign Minister has made it clear that Japan’s position on Taiwan remains unchanged. This is significant because, although Japan’s constitution prohibits the use of force to settle international disputes, it does permit it in instances of self-defence.
The Prime Minister’s speech implies that an attack on Taiwan would warrant Japanese retaliation in the name of self-defence.
Over the past week, China issued several notices to its citizens. On the 14th of November, they advised against travel to Japan. This would be a significant blow as Chinese tourists account for ¼ of International tourists to Japan. The Chinese Minister of Education, without any supporting evidence, issued a warning about attacks on Chinese students in Japan. On the 16th, the Chinese Coast Guard announced it would begin patrolling a group of uninhabited islands claimed by both China and Japan. On November 19th, China reinstated a 2023 import ban on Japanese seafood, citing ‘no market for Japanese seafood in the current climate’ from the Chinese Foreign Ministry. Most recently, China has refused to meet with Japan at the G20 summit.
It is unlikely that this incident will escalate further, as a Japanese envoy flew to China to engage in de-escalation talks. China, however, insisted that Takaichi must rescind her remarks. Nevertheless, rising tensions and restrictions in the region increase the risk of accidents spiralling into forceful hostilities over disputed areas or breaches of Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ). The ‘Davidson window’ suggests that China is preparing to invade by 2027, and China’s encroachment into Taiwan has become increasingly bold.
